DOES ANTIREGIME ACTION UNDER COMMUNIST RULE AFFECT POLITICAL PROTEST AFTER THE FALL - RESULTS OF A PANEL STUDY IN EAST-GERMANY

This article addresses the effects of political protest at a certain t ime on the actors' protest at a later time. I argue that if there is a n effect it is indirect: political protest leads to a change in certai n variables that affect participation at a later time. In a first step , these variables are specified, based on previous research. It is ass umed that public goods preferences (i.e., political, economic, social discontent, and political alienation), weighted by perceived personal influence, a felt obligation to protest, and integration into protest- promoting networks are the major causes for participation in political protest. In a next step, I propose a theory specifying the effects of protest participation on these variables. The hypotheses are tested b y panel data collected in Leipzig (East Germany) referring to the situ ations of 1989 and 1993. The most important results are that participa tion in antiregime action in 1989 led to political, social, and econom ic satisfaction and increased perceived political influence in 1993. T here were no effects of participation in the protests in 1989 on accep ting felt obligations to protest and on integration into protest-promo ting networks in 1993.