PROJECTION OF HIV-INFECTION IN CALCUTTA

Starting with the base year of 1991, the HIV infection projection for 1992-99 for the total, as well as various high-risk sub-populations of Calcutta, the first of its kind is provided. These projections are ba sed on statistical methodology developed in this paper. Our methodolog y for spread of HIV infection takes into account various social intera ctions and practices and also uses available data. Rates of these inte ractions and practices and estimates of demographic parameters used in making projections were obtained primarily from surveys and census da ta. Since one of these estimated rates, that of HIV transmission rate through heterosexual encounters between an infected and an uninfected had a large range, we have provided two sets of projections based on t he largest of these rates (worst-case scenario) and another that is co nsistent with the available data. The total projection of the number o f HIV infected cases in Calcutta for 1999 is between 49,000 and 1,26,0 00. Separate projections are also provided for high-risk sub-groups. A mong these, the sex workers expectedly will continue to manifest the h ighest numbers of newly infected cases. The temporal rate of increase in prevalence is projected to be alarmingly higher in the general popu lation than even among sex workers, although the actual prevalence wil l continue to be the lowest in the general population compared to all other sub-groups of the population.