VALIDATION OF A PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR POSTOPERATIVE PULMONARY COMPLICATIONS

OBJECTIVE: To test or validate a previously reported model for predict ing postoperative pulmonary complications (PPCs) after elective abdomi nal surgical procedures. DESIGN: Prospective, descriptive. SETTING: Fo ur midwestern hospitals serving a diverse population of patients. PATI ENTS: Two hundred seventy-six adult patients who had undergone abdomin al surgery (51% men, 49% women; mean age 54.1 +/- 5.3 years). OUTCOME MEASURES: PPC developed in 26.4%. DATA COLLECTION: Data were collected preoperatively during a brief interview and a pulmonary physical exam ination and on the first 6 postoperative days. RESULTS: A six risk-fac tor model was tested in this sample of subjects. The model validated r elatively well in the sample of 276 subjects with use of the basic cri teria of correct classification, sensitivity, and specificity. However , when a new model was developed from this sample, differing risk fact ors emerged as significant independent predictors. CONCLUSIONS: Furthe r research is needed to assess the stability of the risk factors and t est the models in differing settings and populations of patients.