Fatigue cracks have often been observed to nucleate at inclusions or c
onstituent particles in thin sheet 2024-T3 aluminum. Large amounts of
scatter are commonly observed in the experimental fatigue lives and cr
ack nucleation site data. This research attempts to address some of th
e stochastic issues associated with the fatigue process. An experiment
al program was conducted to investigate the influence of inclusions on
fatigue crack formation. Inclusions were found to be the dominant cra
ck nucleation site and the inclusion sizes that nucleated fatigue crac
ks were from the large particle tail of the overall inclusion size dis
tribution. A probabilistic model has been developed to predict the obs
erved variability in the experimental fatigue lives from the measured
distribution of inclusion sizes. In order to model crack growth from a
microstructurally sized defect (such as an inclusion), a total fatigu
e life prediction model accounting for the small crack effect must be
utilized. The probabilistic model uses a Monte Carlo simulation and Ne
wman's FASTRAN II model to predict fatigue life. The fatigue life dist
ributions, that were generated with the probabilistic model, predicted
the critical, lower experimental fatigue lives and the overall variab
ility in fatigue lives under several loading conditions. (C) 1998 Else
vier Science Ltd.