PHYSICIAN SUPPLY AND MEDICAL-EDUCATION IN CALIFORNIA - A COMPARISON WITH NATIONAL TRENDS

Concerns have been voiced about an impending oversupply of physicians in the United States. Do these concerns also apply to California, a st ate with many unique demographic characteristics? We examined trends i n physician supply and medical education in California and the United States between 1980 and 1995 to better inform the formulation of workf orce policies appropriate to the state's requirements for physicians. We found that similar to the United States, California has more than a n ample supply of physicians in the aggregate, but too many specialist s, too few underrepresented racial/ethnic minority physicians, and poo r distribution of physicians across the state. However, recent growth in the supply of practicing physicians and resident physicians per cap ita in California has beers much less dramatic than in the country ove rall. The state's unusually high rate of population growth has enabled California, unlike the United States as a whole, to absorb large incr eases in the plumber of practicing physicians and residents during 198 0 to 1995 without substantially increasing the physician-to-population ratio. Due to a projected glowing of the state's rate of population g rowth, the supply of physicians per capita in the state will begin to rise steeply in coming years unless the skate implements prompt reduct ions in the production of specialists. An immediate 25% reduction ire specialist residency positions would be necessary to bring the state's supply of practicing specialists in line with projected physician req uirements for the state by 2020. We conclude that major changes will b e required if the state's residency programs and medical schools are t o produce the number and mix of physicians the state requires. Califor nia's medical schools and residency programs will need to act in conce rt with federal and state government to develop effective policies to address the imbalance between physician supply and state requirements.