Cylindrical tanks that are not anchored effectively to their foundatio
ns often rock during seismic loading. Vertical compressive forces in t
he tank wall that are required to resist seismic overturning moments t
hen tend to be concentrated over a small portion of the circumference
of the tank. where the tank wall remains in contact with the foundatio
n. This together with the effect of internal pressures often leads to
plastic buckling of the tank wall at the base or the so-called elephan
t foot bulge. This paper aims at predicting not only whether elephant
foot bulging will occur, but also the extent of elephant foot bulging.
This is done by means of a nonlinear dynamic time history analysis on
a simplified rigid cylinder model, in which equivalent springs are us
ed to represent elastic tank deformations, as well as nonlinear effect
s including geometric and plastic shortening of the tank wall caused b
y elephant foot bulging, and the resistance to uplift provided by the
hold-down action of the floor plate. A physically based approach is pr
ovided to calculate the properties and location of the equivalent spri
ngs using finite-element analyses of the tank that can be performed wi
th minimal computational effort. This leads to a simplified model for
which key aspects of the behavior (dynamic as well as static) match th
at of the real tank. The approach is applied to a tank that was damage
d during the 1977 San Juan earthquake. Although field measurements of
the amount of elephant foot bulging are not available, photographs tak
en after the earthquake show an amount of bulging that is consistent w
ith the predictions.