EPIDEMIOLOGY OF HOMICIDE IN ALLEGHENY COUNTY, PENNSYLVANIA, BETWEEN 1966-1974 AND 1984-1993

Background. We compared homicide death rates and characteristics of ho micide victims and perpetrators in 1966-1974, 1984-1990, 1992-1993, an d 1996 in Allegheny County, Pennsylvania, in an attempt to detect poss ible differences in the pattern of homicides. Methods. Data were obtai ned from death certificates, coroner's records, police reports and new spapers. Results. In the 1990s the homicide death rate increased for 1 5- to 24-year-old black men. The rate was 69 per 100,000/year for blac k men ages 15-24 years from 1966 to 1974 and rose to 275 per 100,000 f rom 1992 to 1993. Currently the rates appear to be declining again. Pr eliminary data from 1996 showed the number of homicide deaths excludin g vehicular homicides between 1993 and 1996 to decline from 19 to 8 fo r white men, from 70 to 42 for black men, from 9 to 3 for white women, and from 13 to 6 for black women with little change in the population (denominator). The dramatic drop from 111 to 61 deaths over a short t ime is similar to changes across the United State and is characteristi c of epidemic rise and fall of homicides in the community. Conclusions . Between 1966 and 1993 Allegheny County experienced two separate homi cide epidemics, one between 1966 and 1976 and the other between 1990 a nd 1993. Epidemics of homicide occur frequently and have different cha racteristics. New characteristics of the most recent epidemic of homic ide include more homicides out of home, among strangers; less associat ion with alcohol; and multiple perpetrators. Drug-use-associated homic ides have also increased. Guns are the primary agents of homicide epid emics. (C) 1998 American Health Foundation and Academic Press.