MODELING THE DYNAMIC EFFECTS OF COMMUNITY CHEMOTHERAPY ON PATTERNS OFMORBIDITY DUE TO SCHISTOSOMA-MANSONI

This paper uses a mathematical framework to predict the long-term cons equences of chemotherapy for the age distribution of schistosomiasis m orbidity. The framework incorporates a previously validated transmissi on model, which is here extended to capture effects on 2 forms of Schi stosoma mansoni morbidity: early disease exemplified by hepatomegaly a nd late disease exemplified by Symmers's fibrosis. The main aim of thi s analysis is to show how such an approach could be used to explore th e probable public health consequences of decades of control. It is sug gested that this procedure could usefully inform current approaches to the design of long-term control programmes.