THE 1996 OPEN-SEAT CONGRESSIONAL ELECTIONS

Objective. Persistent Democratic dominance in open-seat races came to an abrupt end in 1994 as Republicans gained eighteen seats in open Hou se contests. A large part of this Republican surge was regional: south ern voters rejected experienced Democratic House candidates, often in favor of less experienced Republicans. In 1996, the GOP sustained its majority and actually registered a net gain of six seats in nonincumbe nt contests. Data. We further explore the changes in open-seat con tes ts by examining the dynamics of open-seat contests in 1996, using regr ession analysis of district-level data from that year's forty-nine ope n-seat contests. Results. Our analysis indicates that the changes whic h began with the 1994 elections have not been reversed or abated; the GOP continues to make political gains in the South. In open-seat races in 1996, elective experience was not a significant predictor of elect oral success. Conclusions. The South's continued shift to the GOP and the volatility of political experience as an indicator of success sinc e 1994 indicate a change in voter preferences and decision making that diminished the importance of political experience in winning a seat i n Congress in 1996.