CLOSURE OF DISPUTES IN ASSESSMENTS OF CLIMATE-CHANGE IN THE NETHERLANDS

This paper presents an analysis of the closure of visible disputes in the assessments of climate change in the Netherlands. We focus primari ly on two key constituents of the assessments: the estimate of climate sensitivity and the inclusion of non-CO2 greenhouse gases in assessme nt studies. For the cases studied, we identify variability in the asse ssment reports in the Netherlands during the pre-IPCC period. In the N etherlands arena, the assessments in this period can be seen as expone nts of two different lines, a Netherlands line and an international li ne. We seek to identify what factors were decisive in the selection pr ocesses that resulted in the closure of visible disputes (visible in o r across the assessment reports) for both cases. Our analysis reveals a remarkable difference in the adoption behavior of two Dutch assessme nt groups despite a large overlap in membership. We provide evidence t hat it is not the paradigmatic predisposition of the experts in the co mmittee that was decisive for the closure of visible disputes, but it was the context in which the experts operated and the commitments they had made in each setting.