FORECASTING ACCURACY AND SYSTEM-COMPLEXITY

Accurate forecasts are essential for a great number of applications ye t large errors and considerable uncertainty characterize most of our a ttempts for predicting the future. This article surveys empirical stud ies on forecasting accuracy, summarizing their conclusions and examini ng the implications involved. It then discusses the effects of system complexity on forecasting accuracy and the related uncertainty while p redicting future events. Finally, it provides suggestions for forecast ing as accurately and realistically as possible when large and complex systems are involved.