CHANCE AND RISK OF CONTROLLING RABIES IN LARGE-SCALE AND LONG-TERM IMMUNIZED FOX POPULATIONS

The large-scale immunization of European fox populations against rabie s is currently under the microscope for reducing the considerable expe nditure without putting public health at risk. Empirical knowledge is inadequate to interpret the lasting sporadic incidences and, therefore , to verify the final success of the immunization campaigns. By using a proven simulation model we show that rabies can persist on a very lo w level in the form of spatio-temporal moving infection clusters withi n a highly immunized fox population. We found further: (i) the existen ce of a threshold after which the chance of eradicating the disease by vaccination increases clearly and (ii) that at least six years of 70% mean immunization race are required to guarantee a likely success.