VOTER DISCERNMENT AND CANDIDATE ENTRY IN PLURALITARIAN ELECTION

The paper develops a sequential model of candidate entry into election s decided on the basis of plurality. We analyze the kinds of candidate s who are most likely to enter elections and simulate several plausibl e myopic entry sequences under various assumptions about voter abiliti es to discern differences in candidate positions. In the cases examine d, open elections for ''important'' positions attract the entry of mor e than two candidates. Moreover, myopic entry often generates electora l outcomes which depart from the median-mean outcomes of the conventio nal models. These results are consistent with the observed diversity o f candidates in presidential and other significant primary elections w hich contrasts with many previous analyses of electoral entry.