The effect of smoking and physical activity on active and disabled life exp
ectancy was estimated using data from the Established Populations for Epide
miologic Studies of the Elderly (EPESE). Population-based samples of person
s aged greater than or equal to 65 years from the East Boston, Massachusett
s, New Haven, Connecticut, and Iowa sites of the EPESE were assessed at bas
eline between 1981 and 1983 and followed for mortality and disability over
six annual follow-ups. A total of 8,604 persons without disability at basel
ine were classified as "ever" or "never" smokers and doing "low" "moderate,
" or "high" level physical activity. Active and disabled life expectancies
were estimated using a Markov chain model. Compared with smokers, men and w
omen nonsmokers survived 1.6-3.9 and 1.6-3.6 years longer, respectively, de
pending on level of physical activity. When smokers were disabled and close
to death, most nonsmokers were still nondisabled, Physical activity, from
low to moderate to high, was significantly associated with more years of li
fe expectancy in both smokers (9.5, 10.5, 12.9 years in men and 11.1, 12.6,
15.3 years in women at age 65) and nonsmokers (11.0, 14.4, 16.2 years in m
en and 12.7, 16.2, 18.4 years in women at age 65), Higher physical activity
was associated with fewer years of disability prior to death. These findin
gs provide strong and explicit evidence that refraining from smoking and do
ing regular physical activity predict a long and healthy life.