Early prediction of persisting post-concussion symptoms following mild andmoderate head injuries

Objectives. King (1996) reported that a combination of emotional, organic a nd neuropsychological measures taken at 7-10 days following mild and modera te head injury may significantly help predict patients most likely to suffe r persisting postconcussion symptoms (PCS) at three months post-injury. Thi s study investigated a cross-validation sample (N = 57) to determine whethe r the results would be replicated for the early prediction of longer-term s ufferers (i.e. those with persisting symptoms at 6 months post-injury). Design. Multiple regression analyses were used in which scores on the Hospi tal Anxiety and Depression Scale, Impact of Event Scale, Short Orientation Memory and Concentration Test, Rivermead Post-Concussion Symptoms Questionn aire and Post-Traumatic Amnesia taken at 7-10 days post-injury were the ind ependent measures. Scoring on the Rivermead Post-Concussion Symptoms Questi onnaire taken at 6 months post-injury was the dependent measure. Methods. Sixty-six consecutive patients admitted to any trauma ward in Oxfo rdshire with a mild or moderate head injury were recruited from a largescal e randomized controlled sample. The assessment measures were administered a t 7-10 days post-injury and the Rivermead Post-Concussion Symptoms Question naire at 6 months post-injury. Nine patients were unable to be followed up, leaving an active sample of 57. Results. The cross-validation data confirmed that a similar combination of measures to that found in the original study best predicted persisting PCS but that the strength of prediction diminished for the longer term predicti on (i.e. 6 months post-injury). Conclusions. The Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale, Impact of Event Sca le and Post-Traumatic Amnesia in combination are recommended as useful prog nostic screening instruments for predicting persisting PCS, but great cauti on is required if they are used to aid predictions beyond 3 months post-inj ury.