Lo. Mearns et al., Comparative responses of EPIC and CERES crop models to high and low spatial resolution climate change scenarios, J GEO RES-A, 104(D6), 1999, pp. 6623-6646
We compared the responses of the CERES and EPTC crop models, for wheat and
corn, to two different climate change scenarios of different spatial scales
applied to the central Great Plains. The scenarios were formed from a high
-resolution regional climate model (RegCM) and a coarse resolution general
circulation model, which provided the initial and boundary conditions for t
he regional model. Important differences in yield were predicted by the two
models for the two different scenarios. For corn, CERES simulated moderate
yield decreases for both scenarios, while EPIC simulated a decrease for th
e coarse scenario but no change for the fine scale scenario. Differences in
the simulation of wheat yields were also found. These differences were tra
ced to the contrasting ways in which the models form final yield, even thou
gh their strategies for simulating potential total biomass are similar. We
identify the crop model type as an important uncertainty in impacts assessm
ent in addition to the spatial resolution of climate change scenarios.