A climate-based distribution model of malaria transmission in sub-Saharan Africa

Malaria remains the single largest threat to child survival in sub-Snhnmn A frica and warrants long-term investment for control. Previous malaria distr ibution maps have been vague and arbitrary. Marlies Craig, Bob Snow and Dav id le Sueur here describe a simple numerical approach to defining distribut ion of malaria transmission, based upon biological constraints of climate o n parasite and vector development. The model compared well with contemporar y field data and historical 'expert opinion' maps, excepting small-scale ec ological anomalies. The model provides a numerical basis for further refine ment and prediction of the impact of climate change on transmission. Togeth er with population, morbidity and mortality data, the model provides a fund amental tool for strategic control of malaria.