The potential effects of climate change on the Scottish tourist industry

Climate changes currently taking place have impacted upon the pattern of vi sitor activity and threatened the financial viability of tourism-related en terprises. Previous attempts to evaluate the effects of climate change have been based upon a relatively coarse spatial resolution of climatic variati on, which cannot readily be related to the more localised aspects of touris t activity. By combining simple spatial climate models with digital topogra phic data in a Geographical Information System, more detailed maps of spati al patterns of potential changes in the Scottish climate have been produced which have been related to particular aspects of tourism, such as winter s kiing. In Scotland, the indications are that winters are becoming milder an d summers drier. Predictions of changes in winter snow cover and summer dry ness have been based upon historical analogues. Although lowland areas may experience less frequent snow cover, changes may be relatively less signfic ant on the highest ground above 1000 m. Upland areas may also see the great est reduction in dull and damp 'dreich' summer days. It is possible that Sc ottish tourism may reap some localised benefits from ongoing climate change s. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.