MODELS FOR DOMINO EFFECT ANALYSIS IN CHEMICAL PROCESS INDUSTRIES

In the risk assessment parlance, especially with reference to chemical process industries, the term ''domino effect'' is used to denote ''ch ain of accidents,'' or situations when a fire/explosion/missile/toxic load generated by an accident in one unit in an industry causes second ary and higher order accidents in other units. The multi-accident cata strophe which occurred in a refinery at Vishakhapatnam, India, on Sept ember 14, 1997, claiming 60 lives and causing damages to property wort h over Rs 600 million, is the most recent example of the damage potent ial of domino effect. But, even as the domino effect has been document ed since 1947, very little attention has been paid towards modeling th is phenomena. In this paper we have provided a conceptual framework ba sed on sets of appropriate models to forecast domino effects, and asse ss their likely magnitudes and adverse impacts, while conducting risk assessment in a chemical process industry. The utilizability of the fr amework! has been illustrated with a case study.