An offset nonlinear scaling is developed for the ELMy H-mode by analys
ing the ITER II-mode database 1TERH.DB2. The offset part of the stored
energy is determined by the MHD stability of ELM, and the incremental
confinement time of a nonlinear function of heating power is determin
ed by the gyro-Bohm-like transport of the core plasma. This scaling pr
edicts a lower confinement time for ITER than that predicted by genera
l power-law scaling.