ECONOMIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL MODELING FOR POLLUTION-CONTROL IN AN ESTUARY

This paper reports on results from an environmental-economic modelling exercise aimed at quantifying the potential cost savings from a Trada ble Pollution Permits (TPPs) scheme in the Forth Estuary, Scotland. Su ch a scheme might be introduced to control inputs of biological oxygen demand more cheaply than the current regulatory system. A 'MIKE 11' w ater-quality model is combined with step-wise integer and linear progr amming models representing firms' abatement costs. Cost savings under a deterministic scenario are compared with savings under a stochastic scenario, where transfer coefficients, relating discharges to ambient water quality, are allowed to vary. Potential cost savings appear to e xist in both cases, although these cost savings are less in the stocha stic case. The paper concludes by considering potential barriers to an y real-life TPP market actually achieving these potential cost savings . (C) 1998 Academic Press Limited.