EVALUATION OF EXTENSION AND USDA PRICE AND PRODUCTION FORECASTS

This study evaluates agricultural forecasting accuracy in an analysis of responses to the Annual Outlook Survey conducted by the American Ag ricultural Economics Association from 1983 through 1995, Representativ e extension and composite, production, and price forecasts for several commodities are constructed from the survey data. These forecasts are compared to each other and to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) a nd futures-based forecasts. Relationships between forecast features an d accuracy are examined. Generally, extension forecasts are more accur ate than USDA forecasts for livestock series, but not more accurate fo r crops. Composite forecasts are often more accurate than either exten sion or USDA forecasts.