A REGRESSION-ANALYSIS ESTIMATING THE NUMBER OF DRUG-USING ARRESTEES IN 185 US CITIES

Objectives. This study sought to provide population-based estimates of drug-using arrestees in the 185 largest US cities. Methods. A prevale nce model for drug-using arrestees was developed by relating selected social indicators (from 1990 census data) and drug use rates (from Dru g Use Forecasting program data) via logistic regression analysis. Resu lts. It was estimated that in 1990, across the 185 cities, about 925 0 00 arrestees used cocaine, 317 000 used opiates, 213 000 used amphetam ines, 389 000 were drug injectors, and 1 296 000 used an illicit drug. Conclusions. This approach represents a cost-efficient method for pre valence estimation based on empirically demonstrable relationships bet ween social indicators and drug use rates.