DIAGNOSING AND FORECASTING TOTAL COLUMN OZONE BY STATISTICAL RELATIONS

The need for forecasting the level of harmful UVB radiation has stimul ated the search for strong and reliable relations between total column ozone and suitable meteorological parameters. It is shown that daily total column ozone can be predicted regionally in midlatitudes with an uncertainty of about 15 Dobson units (DU; 1 DU = 2.69 x 10(-16) molec ules cm(-2)). Maximum deviations are of the order of +/-20 DU. Deviati ons of more than about 20 DU between prediction and occurrence are tra ced back to doubtful measurements, ground-based as well as satellite. The proposed regressions are hence a suitable tool to check the qualit y of satellite retrievals and of current and historic Dobson series.