Tr. Obrien et al., LONGITUDINAL HIV-1 RNA LEVELS IN A COHORT OF HOMOSEXUAL MEN, Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes and human retrovirology, 18(2), 1998, pp. 155-161
HIV-1 RNA levels measured during early chronic infection strongly pred
iet subsequent clinical events. In the short term, HIV-I is in a stead
y stale, but the stability of viral levels over time is incompletely u
nderstood. We used reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT
-PCR) to examine changes in serum HIV-I RNA levels in 111 HIV-l-infect
ed homosexual men during the period from 1982 to 1992 and their relati
on to clinical outcomes. HIV-I RNA levels increased by a median of 0.0
8 log(10) copieslmliyear (p = .0001). HIV-1 RNA levels rose either gra
dually or abruptly for the majority of subjects; 41% had no increase.
Among subjects surviving at least 8 years, HIV-1 RNA was stable during
the first 4 years after seroconversion (median, 0.00 log(10) copies/m
l/year), but rose in years five through eight (median, 0.06 log(10) co
pies/ml/year; p = .04). The annual HIV-1 RNA level was more predictive
of AIDS (relative hazard [RH], 1.75 per 0.5 log difference; 95% confi
dence interval [CI], 1.38-2.21; likelihood ratio [LR], 26.2) than the
initial level alone (RH, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.10-1.76; LR, 8.5). We conclud
e that most HIV-1-infected persons lack a long-term viral setpoint and
that failure to account for evolution of the viral level can lead to
underestimation of the risk of progression.