TEMPORAL PROGRESSION OF ALCOHOL DEPENDENCE SYMPTOMS IN THE US HOUSEHOLD POPULATION - RESULTS FROM THE NATIONAL COMORBIDITY SURVEY

General population data are presented on patterns and predictors of te mporal progression of alcohol dependence symptoms in the general popul ation. The data come from the National Comorbidity Survey, a nationall y representative general population survey of respondents ages 15-54. Lifetime symptom classes were estimated with latent class analysis (LC A). A 4-class LCA solution, including a ist asymptomatic class and 3 p rogressively more serious symptomatic classes, was found Co fir the da ta. Probability of initial symptom onset among drinkers was found to b e highest in the 10-24 age range, to be higher among men than women, a nd to have increased dramatically in the past 4 decades. Age, gender a nd cohort effects were less powerful in predicting symptom progression . A narrowing of the gender difference over time was due largely to a convergence in initial symptom onset among men and women ages 10-24. T hese results suggest that a rise in initial problems was more importan t than an increase in the transition from problems to dependence in ac counting for the growing prevalence of alcohol dependence during the p ost-WorId war II years in the United States.