LATIN-AMERICAN AUTOGOLPES - DANGEROUS UNDERTOWS IN THE 3RD-WAVE OF DEMOCRATIZATION

Whereas Pent's President Alberto Fujimori was rewarded with re-electio n after he suspended the constitution and dissolved congress in April 1992, Guatemalan President Jorge Serrano's efforts in May 1993 to emul ate Fujimori led to an ignomious exile. Similar events led to presiden tial self-coups in both countries, yet the outcomes were markedly diff erent. In both countries the outsider presidents who were elected in 1 990 adopted a personal and dictatorial style of rule; both presidents faced opposition to their economic austerity measures; and in both cou ntries, relations between the executive, legislature and judiciary wer e tense. The difference in outcomes cannot be explained by these commo n factors; instead different outcomes can be attributed to levels of t hreat perception. The higher level of perception of threat in Peru was caused by the existence of the Shining Path revolutionary organisatio n, whereas in Guatemala the rebels had been all but defeated This cruc ial difference affected public perceptions of the autogolpes, the unit y of the armed forces and the strength of the international reaction. Moreover the perception of threat was deliberately exaggerated by the Peruvian authorities, thereby justifying wirier executive powers and a pattern of greater abuses following the self-coup. The failure of Ser rano's efforts, thanks largely to the lower level of threat perception , had the reverse effect: democracy and the rule of law were strengthe ned.