DO PSYCHOLOGICAL-FACTORS PREDICT CHANGES IN MUSCULOSKELETAL PAIN - A PROSPECTIVE, 2-YEAR FOLLOW-UP-STUDY OF A WORKING POPULATION

Our aim was to determine the predictive value of some psychometric ins truments for the development and persistence of musculoskeletal pain. In 452 subjects, pain in the shoulder, neck, and low back during the p receding year was assessed at baseline, one yea?; and two years' follo w-up. Psychological distress, depression, self-efficacy beliefs, subje ctive work prognosis, disability, and work characteristics were assess ed at baseline, The best predictor of future pain. was disability, The psychometric measures did, not predict changes in pain. The explanato ry power of the variables in the multivariate analyses was low. Percei ved disability! in persons with musculoskeletal symptoms should be ack nowledged early. The traditional research paradigm focusing on a few h ypothetically relevant variables does not take into account the reflec tive, dynamic, reciprocal nature of human behavior during the process of recovery from or development of a pain problem.