Background We consider the evidence for the proposition that the early
phase of psychosis (including the period of untreated psychosis) is a
'critical period' in which (a) long-term outcome is predictable, and
(b) biological, psychological and psychosocial influences are developi
ng and show maximum plasticity. Method First-episode prospective studi
es. predictors of outcome and the genesis of patients' key appraisals
of their psychosis are reviewed. Results The data support the notion o
f the 'plateau effect', first coined by Tom McGlashan, which suggested
that where deterioration occurs. it does so aggressively in the first
2-3 years; and that critical psychosocial influences, including famil
y and psychological reactions to psychosis and psychiatric services, d
evelop during this period. Conclusions The early phase of psychosis pr
esents important opportunities for secondary prevention. We outline a
prototype of intervention appropriate to the critical period.The data
challenge the widely held assumption that first-episode psychosis is a
benign illness posing little risk.