GLOBAL WARMING AND THE FUTURE OF CARIBBEAN CORAL-REEFS

Computer simulations with the COREEF model (Graus et al. 1984) demonst rate that the growth of Caribbean coral reefs will be unable to match all but the most optimistic predicted rates of sea level rise that glo bal warming is expected to cause over the next few centuries, and, the refore, these reefs will gradually become more submerged. As they deep en, higher waves will propagate into back-reef areas, altering the eco logical and sedimentological zonation patterns and accelerating the er osion of leeward shelves and shores. Resuspended sediment will increas e the turbidity, causing the demise of sediment-sensitive corals and p ossibly entire reef communities.