CONFIDE - A COLLECTIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCEDURE USING CONFIDENCE ESTIMATES OF INDIVIDUAL JUDGMENTS

An algorithm (termed CONFIDE) is proposed that may capture many of the benefits of group decision making without the necessity of face-to-fa ce interaction. The algorithm allows individual decision makers to dif ferentially weight the contributions from members according to the con fidence with which each member holds to their opinions. The CONFIDE al gorithm is compared to both face-to-face group decisions and simple av eraging of group members opinions on the Lost-at-Sea ranking task. Res ults indicate that, in terms of decision quality, the CONFIDE algorith m produces solutions equal to that of the face-to-face group decision method and significantly better than the solution achieved by simple a veraging of group members' responses.