J. Deutsch et Gs. Epstein, CHANGING A DECISION TAKEN UNDER UNCERTAINTY - THE CASE OF THE CRIMINALS LOCATION CHOICE, Urban studies, 35(8), 1998, pp. 1335-1343
In this paper we analyse the allocation of criminal activity over the
metropolitan area over time. At each period of time, the criminal must
choose in which area to commit his/her next offence. The criminal's e
xpectations regarding his/her utility as a function of the probability
to be apprehended are updated in the process of work. We find general
conditions, under which the criminal determines his optimal location
strategy. A direct policy implication of our model suggests that spill
over effect is the result of changing police activities.