A MODELING METHODOLOGY FOR ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CLIMATIC-CHANGE ON HYDROELECTRIC GENERATION

A new methodology relating basic climatic variables to hydroelectric g eneration was developed. The methodology can be implemented in large o r small basins with any number of hydro plants. The method was applied to the Sacramento, Eel and Russian river basins in-northern Californi a where more than 100 hydroelectric plants are located. The final mode l predicts the availability of hydroelectric generation for the entire basin provided present and near past climate conditions, with about 9 0% accuracy. The results can be used for water management purposes or for analyzing the effect of climate variability on hydrogeneration. Cl imate change scenarios were defined to investigate the impact of globa l warming on the hydrogeneration availability in the basin. A wide ran ge of results can be obtained depending on the climate change scenario used. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.