THE DYNAMICS OF DELINQUENT PEERS AND DELINQUENT-BEHAVIOR

This analysis examines the dynamic reciprocal relationship between del inquent peer associations and delinquent behavior It tests the hypothe sis, derived from learning and interactional theories, that delinquent peers and delinquent behavior are reciprocally related-delinquent pee r associations foster future delinquency, and delinquency increases th e likelihood of associating with delinquent peers. It also tests the c ompeting hypothesis, derived from control theories, that delinquent pe ers do not cause delinquency, but instead the relationship is (1) spur ious due to individual criminal propensity, (2) a result of the effect s of delinquent behavior on future associations with delinquent peers, or (3) an artifact of problems of measuring delinquent peers. To test these propositions, we use data from the National Youth Survey and es timate a cross-lagged panel model that corrects for measurement error in indicators of delinquent peers and delinquent behavior. The model s pecifies a covariance structure model fbr ordinal measures. Parameters are estimated by (1) estimating a threshold model relating ordinal me asures to continuous latent variables; (2) estimating a matrix of poly choric correlations relating observed variables, and (3) using an asym ptotic distribution-free estimator to estimate structural parameters. The results suggest that delinquent peer associations and delinquent b ehavior are reciprocally related, but the effect of delinquency on pee r associations is larger than that of peer associations on delinquency .