PREDICTING ON-TIME PERFORMANCE IN SCHEDULED RAILROAD OPERATIONS - METHODOLOGY AND APPLICATION TO TRAIN SCHEDULING

In previous work, the authors developed an analytical line delay model for analyzing rail line-haul operations, and validated the model as a predictive tool. This paper examines the application of the model as a prescriptive tool for the generation of train schedules. A unique fe ature of the model is that it incorporates dynamic meet/pass prioritie s in order to approximate an optimal meet/pass planning process. Exten sive Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to examine the application of the model for adjusting real-world schedules to improve on-time per formance and reduce delay. This empirical work represents the first at tempt to investigate the impacts of the scheduling methodology on on-t ime line-haul performance. The problems are based on historical data f rom a major North American railroad. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. Al l rights reserved.