MAXIMUM-LIKELIHOOD-ESTIMATION OF POPULATION DIVERGENCE TIMES AND POPULATION PHYLOGENY IN MODELS WITHOUT MUTATION

In this paper we present a method for estimating population divergence times by maximum likelihood in models without mutation. The maximum-l ikelihood estimator is compared to a commonly applied estimator based on Wright's F-ST statistic. Simulations suggest that the maximum-likel ihood estimator is less biased and has a lower variance than the F-ST- based estimator. The maximum-likelihood estimator provides a statistic al framework for the analysis of population history given genetic data . We demonstrate how maximum-likelihood estimates of the branching pat tern of divergence of multiple populations may be obtained.We also des cribe how the method may be applied to test hypotheses such as whether populations have maintained equal population sizes. We illustrate the method by applying it to two previously published sets of human restr iction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) data.