RABIES IN ZIMBABWE - RESERVOIR DOGS AND THE IMPLICATIONS FOR DISEASE-CONTROL

Using detailed field study observations of the side-striped jackal (Ca nis adustus) and a simple stochastic model of the transmission dynamic s of the virus and host demography, we discuss the epidemiology of rab ies virus infection in the jackal population of Zimbabwe. Of the two j ackal species in Zimbabwe, the other being the black-backed jackal (Ca nis mesomelas), the bulk of notified rabies cases are in side-striped jackals. Specifically, we show that the side-striped jackal population itself does not seem able to support rabies infection endemically, i. e. without frequent reintroduction from outside sources of infection. We argue that this is probably because the overall average jackal popu lation density is too low to maintain the chain of infection. This stu dy suggests that the disease is regularly introduced to jackals by rab id dogs from populations associated with human settlements. Given the rapidly rising dog population in Zimbabwe, estimates are derived of th e future incidence of jackal rabies based on different dog-vaccination scenarios.