BAYESIAN FRAMEWORKS FOR INTEGRATING QRA AND SRA METHODS

Lately there has been an increasing interest in using Structural Relia bility Analysis (SRA) methods in Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA). The Bayesian approach seems to be the most applied framework for the inte grated analyses. It is, however, not clear what the Bayesian approach really means. There exist alternative Bayesian approaches, and the int egration of SRA methods and QRA is very much dependent on what is the basis. The purpose of this paper is to contribute to a clarification a nd give some guidance with respect to the choice of approach. The star ting point is our experience from the petroleum sector, but the discus sion is to large extent general. We conclude that the most suitable fr amework for integrating SRA methods in QRA is to adopt the ''fully Bay esian approach'' with focus on observable quantities and use of subjec tive probabilities. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved .