PROJECTED MORTALITY FROM LUNG-CANCER IN SOUTH-KOREA, 1980-2004

Background In recent years, mortality from lung cancer has increased r apidly in Korea, a South East Asian country with a high prevalence of smoking. The objectives of this study are to examine how age, period, and birth cohort effects contributed to trends in lung cancer mortalit y in Korea 1980-1994, and to predict lung cancer mortality rates for 1 995-2004. Methods Age- and sex-specific lung cancer mortality rates we re obtained from annual reports of the National Office of Statistics i n Korea. Poisson regression models were used to estimate age, period a nd cohort effects. Results Among men, age-adjusted annual mortality ra tes from lung cancer (per 100 000) increased from 3.7 in 1980 to 17.8 in 1994; corresponding rates for women were 1.4 and 7.0. As age increa sed, mortality rates from lung cancer increased more rapidly in men th an in women. Within the same age group, the mortality of younger cohor ts was higher than older cohorts. The average annual number of lung ca ncer deaths projected for the years 2000-2004 among men and women will be 15 441 and 3572 respectively, while the average annual age-adjuste d mortality rates from lung cancer (per 100 000) will be 65.4 for men and 15.1 for women. These rates correspond to 17.7- and 10.7-fold incr eases over the 1980 mortality rates in men and women, respectively. Co nclusion These results, in conjunction with trends in tobacco consumpt ion, indicate that mortality from lung cancer in both men and women wi ll increase substantially through the early part of the 21st century i n Korea.