SUBSPECIALTY DISTRIBUTIONS OF OPHTHALMOLOGISTS IN THE WORKFORCE

Objective: To describe the distribution of the supply and requirements for subspecialty ophthalmologists. Methods: Estimates from the Eye Ca re Workforce Study were used to provide subspecialty-based assessments of the supply and public health need, as well as market demand, for c are provided by subspecialists. Reconciliation with the boundary model s (optometry first, ophthalmology first) of the Eye Care Workforce Stu dy and current market status also were performed. Results: Whether sub specialists are in excess depends first on which boundary model most c losely approximates the current market conditions. Under an optometry- first model, 70% of all ophthalmologists are in excess, although subsp ecialists (39%) are relatively less in excess than comprehensive ophth almologists (91% excess). Under an oph thalmology-first model, no opht halmologists would be in excess. Extrapolating from current market con ditions, a slight excess of ophthalmologists exists, probably proporti onal across subspecialists and comprehensive ophthalmologists. Future growth in the ophthalmologist supply will be almost entirely among sub specialists. Conclusion: Under current market conditions, substantial excesses in subspecialist ophthalmologists are likely to develop and g row worse over time, given current training levels.