THE EFFECT OF IMMIGRATION ON THE INTERNAL MIGRATION OF THE NATIVE-BORN POPULATION, 1981-1990

This study examines the impact of immigration on the labor market oppo rtunities of the native-born population by looking through the window of migration. We use Current Population Survey data to analyze the one -year migration patterns of Angles and Blacks and include the presence of recent immigrants in the origin and (potential) destination US sta tes among the covariates. Our departure model employs a legit specific ation to predict outmigration (vs not) from the state during the year prior to the survey. Our arrival model uses a conditional legit discre te choice specification with sampling among the alternatives to predic t destination state. The data are taken from the 1981, 1984, 1987, and 1990 Current Population Surveys. This work adds to other knowledge of the migratory response of workers and sheds light on theories of subs titution and complementarity in labor markets. States with high levels of recent immigration are less likely to retain Angle workers or rece ive new Angle interstate migrants, but this apparent substitution effe ct is partially offset by the presence of long-term immigrant stock. L ower skilled Angles are more susceptible to this substitution effect t han those of higher skill level. In the black population, results are more complex. Lower skilled blacks are less attracted to high immigran t locations, but African-Americans of higher skill level in selected o ccupations and industries are predicted to be more likely to remain in or choose states with many recent immigrants.