AEROSOL MIGRATION NEAR CHERNOBYL - LONG-TERM DATA AND MODELING

Airborne particles from a polluted area can pose a long-term health ha zard to residents nearby. However, the long-term prediction of aerosol migration has never been successful. We show in the present paper tha t a recently proposed model (Hatano and Hatano, 1997, Atmospheric Envi ronment 31, 2297-2303) successfully reproduces data of the aerosol con centration measured near Chernobyl over a decade. The time dependence of the resuspension factor is also reproduced very well. In fitting ou r theoretical formula to the data, we obtain values of the fitting par ameters that provide important information on the emission quantity an d removal processes of nuclides from the accident. We show that 2200 d ays of measurement after the accident should be enough to predict the concentration in the air 10 years later. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd . All rights reserved.