In order to determine the vulnerability of Mexican forest ecosystems,n
atural protected and forestry areas to climate change, an assessment w
as performed under two climate change scenarios generated by the Canad
ian Climate Center (CCC) and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
(GFDL) models. Based on Holdridge's life zones and local classificati
ons, the results suggest that the most vulnerable life zones would be
temperate cold and warm forests, mainly due to the increase in tempera
ture. Tropical dry, very dry and thorn forests would enlarge their cur
rent area coverage under the climate change CCC scenario, while under
the GFDL scenario increases in the distribution of tropical humid and
wet forests would occur. For some ecosystems, such as tropical forest,
climate change is a minor threat compared to the degradation currentl
y induced by human activities, A current land-use assessment indicates
that, in the recent years, the ecosystems most affected by human acti
vities are the tropical forests due to the expansion of grasslands for
tropical cattle ranching, Man-induced forest fires, to increase pastu
re production, are the main cause of degradation in temperate forests.
The natural protected areas most affected by climate change would be
the northern and western regions of the country, as well as the southe
rn tropical mountains where an important number of endemic plants exis
t. On the other hand, forestry areas that would be most affected are l
ocated in the Sierra Madre Occidental, where timber exploitation in co
niferous forests is high. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights re
served.