Objectives: To assess the cost-effectiveness, relative to other health
-related interventions in the U.S., of post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP)
following potential HIV exposure through sexual contact with a partne
r who may or may not be infected, and to compare the relative cost-eff
ectiveness of dual- and triple-combination PEP. Methods: Standard tech
niques of cost-utility analysis were used to assess the cost effective
ness of PEP with a four-week regimen of zidovudine and lamivudine, or
zidovudine, lamivudine, and indinavir. Due to a lack of empirical data
on the effectiveness of PEP with combination drug regimens, the analy
sis assumed that combination PEP was no more effective than PEP with z
idovudine alone. The main outcome variable is the cost per quality-adj
usted life year (QALY) saved by the program. Results: Providing PEP to
a cohort of 10 000 patients who report receptive anal intercourse wit
h a partner of unknown HIV status (who is assumed to be infected with
probability equal to 0.18) would prevent about 20 infections, at an av
erage net cost of about US$ 70 000 per infection averted. The cost-uti
lity ratio, US$ 6316 per QALY saved, indicates that PEP is highly cost
-effective in this instance. Moreover, triple-combination PEP would ne
ed to be about 9% more effective than dual-combination PEP for the add
ition of indinavir to the regimen to be considered cost-effective. Pro
phylaxis following receptive vaginal exposure is cost-effective only w
hen it is nearly certain that the partner is infected; PEP for inserti
ve anal and vaginal intercourse does not appear to be cost-effective.
Conclusions: From a purely economic standpoint, PEP should be restrict
ed to partners of infected persons (e.g., serodiscordant couples), to
patients reporting unprotected receptive anal intercourse (including c
ondom breakage), and possibly to cases where there is a substantial li
kelihood that the partner is infected. Providing PEP to all who reques
t it does not appear to be an economically efficient use of limited HI
V prevention and treatment resources. (C) 1998 Lippincott-Raven Publis
hers.