DEPRESSIVE SYMPTOMS AND ACCURACY IN THE PREDICTION OF FUTURE EVENTS

In two studies, the authors examined the accuracy of dysphoric and non dysphoric individuals' predictions about their future behavior: Partic ipants predicted the occurrence of a variety of everyday events and re ported on their occurrence over a period of either 4 (Study I) or 8 (S tudy 2) weeks. As expected dysphoria was unrelated to overall accuracy , but nondysphorics tended to be more accurate in making optimistic pr edictions and dysphorics tended to be more accurate in making pessimis tic predictions. These differences were related to differences between the two dysphoric groups in base rates of reported outcome occurrence and certainty of judgments. The findings did not support depressive r ealism, the negative biasing effect of dysphoria on future predictions , or the contention that dysphorics are less accurate because they pre dict either more atypical or overly optimistic outcomes.