ETHNIC SCHISM AND THE CONSOLIDATION OF POSTCOMMUNIST DEMOCRACIES - THE CASE OF ESTONIA

The collapse of the Soviet Empire provides several instances where the presence of Russian-speaking minorities constitute a potential challe nge to the consolidation of former Soviet Republics as independent dem ocracies. This paper uses national sample surveys undertaken in 1993 a nd 1995 to examine ethnic relations in Estonia, Using the framework of exit, voice and loyalty as a basis for interpreting reactions to the choices presented in this context, it is shown that several years afte r the break-up of the Soviet Union, the two main ethnic groups remaine d firmly opposed over issues of citizenship and minority rights, an op position accentuated by their relatively limited degree of internal di fferentiation. Assimilation of Russian-speaking minorities was not acc epted by ethnic Estonians, and was not sort by Russians. For several r easons, however, Russians showed no strong signs of reacting by endors ing either secession or emigration as a solution to the exclusion of m any of them from full citizenship. The analysis points to a continuing tension in the position of Russian-speakers within the new state, wit h the eventual emergence of a mobilized ethnic political voice within Estonia as a likely outcome. (C) 1998 The Regents of the University of California. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd.