RECOMMENDATIONS ON THE USE OF EXPERT JUDGMENT IN SAFETY AND RELIABILITY ENGINEERING STUDIES - 2 OFFSHORE CASE-STUDIES

This paper provides guidance on the process of establishing input data to safety and reliability engineering analyses when no or little fiel d data exist, and expert judgment is required. Some recommendations ar e directly related to a discussion of basic requirements for scientifi c work. Further, two case studies are discussed in order to highlight some actual problem areas that are experienced when using expert judgm ent, and some recommendations for handling these problems are given. T he first case describes how expert judgment was used to analyse the sa fe operation of an umbilical on a semisubmersible drilling rig, and th e second case is related to establishing generic failure rates/probabi lities for components of offshore safety systems. (C) 1998 Elsevier Sc ience Limited.