AN ESTIMATE FOR THE SIZE OF CYCLE-23 USING MULTIVARIATE RELATIONSHIPS

A new technique based on multivariate analysis is described which allo ws for the prediction of the size or maximum amplitude of cycle 23. Th e technique uses the number of geomagnetic disturbances at selected ti mes during the decline of cycle 22 (as precursors) to predict a maximu m of about 152 (in terms of smoothed monthly mean sunspot numbers) for cycle 23. On the basis of this technique, hindcasts for cycles 17-22 are shown to agree with observed values within 5%.