Rs. Sobel, THE POLITICAL COSTS OF TAX INCREASES AND EXPENDITURE REDUCTIONS - EVIDENCE FROM STATE LEGISLATIVE TURNOVER, Public choice, 96(1-2), 1998, pp. 61-79
This paper estimates the political costs of increasing taxes and cutti
ng expenditures for members of a legislature. It is found that both co
sts are individually significant, but that they are not significantly
different. This coincides with the first order condition for maximizat
ion of the probability of reelection. Republican legislatures have a h
igher political cost for taxes, thus the party's relative bias toward
smaller government is founded in stronger constituent preferences agai
nst taxes, not for lower spending. Additionally, by being ideologicall
y conservative, Republicans lower the political costs of taxes, while
by being more liberal, Democrats lower the cost of cutting expenditure
s.