WILL REDUCED SULFUR EMISSIONS UNDER THE 2ND SULFUR PROTOCOL LEAD TO RECOVERY OF ACID-SENSITIVE SITES IN UK

A conceptual model of the combined effects of acid deposition and land -use, Model of Acidification of Groundwater In Catchments (MAGIC), was applied to 21 upland sites in the UK Acid Waters Monitoring Network ( AWMN) to assess the likely future recovery in response to the latest i nternational agreements controlling anthropogenic sulphur emissions th roughout Europe. Future estimates of sulphur deposition were generated by the Hull Acid Rain Model (HARM), based on the agreed reductions ou tlined in the Second Sulphur Protocol. The results indicate only a lim ited degree of recovery in surface-water chemistry at all sites over t he next 50 years; moreover, a continuing decline in soil base status i s predicted to occur at 70% of sites, resulting in longer term re-acid ification of surface-water at 38% of sites. However, compared with a ' business as usual' scenario the recovery is pronounced, although acidi fied sites will require further reductions in acidic deposition if rec overy to pre-industrial chemical conditions are to be achieved. Furthe rmore, land-use scenarios at afforested sites suggest that replanting of felled forest will lead to a further increase in acidification. Thi s strengthens the argument that plantation forestry should be avoided in areas considered geologically sensitive to acidic deposition. (C) 1 998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.